As of Friday, April 11, 2025, there is still a lot of speculation over what will happen next with the tariff wars happening on the global economic stage. Depending on who you ask, some say it’s all bad and others say its mostly good and long overdue. How it ends up is still a mystery, but here is my perspective and the 7 considerations you should contemplate with your investments.

1) At the heart of the tariff war is what some consider the ‘main event’ between the U.S. & China. Since most Americans don’t pay a lot of attention to international news, many don’t see that China is currently experiencing a recessionary enviornment that some people compare to the US 2008 recession. The fallout from the collapse of the Evergrande Group in early 2024 is still very much alive and plaguing the Chinese economy today. China’s GDP growth has been steadily slowing for a couple decades now, as pictured below. Minus the Covid spike, the trend has been consistently in a downward trend. Conversely, the U.S. stock market is experiencing some negative volatility, but the U.S. labor market remains very stable and GDP growth has marched steadily upward. Those 2 dynamics have opened the door for a new U.S. administration to push the issue of global leadership into the spotlight.

Chart Source: Statista

Historic and projected GDP for China 2013 - 2029

2) The current tariff negotiations are part of a broader global economic conversation that was destined to happen sooner or later, no matter what circumstances manifested with global current events. China wants to displace the U.S. as the premier super power and the US wants to make sure it assures the rest of the world that the U.S. has been, is today, and will remain in control of the world economic agenda. Both sides are making outward displays that are intended to assert their dominance, but president Trump has decided that now is the time to lay all the cards out on the table to prove who has the best hand. Trump’s tariff policy is forcing China to show all their cards, whether they like it or not. People may like or dislike the tactic, but it most assuredly will result in establishing which country commands ‘Alpha Status’ when all is said and done.

3) Covid-19 exposed the strengths and weakness of every single country in the world. It exposed allies and enemies. It showed economic supply chain vulnerabilities. It brought out the best and worst of every population. Most notably, it started the acceleration of multiple technologies that will be certain to advance the next economic move upward on the world stage (more on that topic below).

4) With the aftermath of Covid-19 finally dissipating, many countries are coming to the conclusion that having too much manufacturing in a single country is not as advantageous as it once was. Many CEO’s are electing to move all or part of their Chinese manufacturing to other regions, citing geopolitical risk, tariffs, political instability & supply chain diversification. Other countries around the world, that were once considered 3rd world, are now entering their own manufacturing and economic renaissance. There are more choices and competition for manufacturing, which is beneficial for a better world economy. This bodes well for the United States, as the U.S. is better suited for partnerships, while China, on the other hand, has a long standing reputation of stealing intellectual property, which is now starting to have consequences on the world stage.

5) Pundits often point to China’s 1 billion + population as a representation of its economic strength. For the past 80 years, China has been able to manifest enough bodies to tackle any obstacle it faced, and that characteristic has served the country well. Today, that dynamic is rapidly changing. China now has to compete with India, who surpassed the Chinese population for the first time in 2023. Additionally, China now has a declining population that is estimated to dwindle to about 65% of its 2023 high by the year 2100, according to Pew Research. China appears to be slowly handing the baton to India with regards to its population advantage.

6) We are witnessing a restructuring of global trading partnerships with the United States being the largest consumer market that manufacturing countries want to tie themselves to. News has surfaced in the last couple days that Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are wanting to meet with Trump to craft a trading agreement. Japan is the 3rd largest manufacturing country with South Korea being 6th and Taiwan geographically situated to benefit from being a good trading partner with the rest of the world. Imagine for just a moment what would happen if just those 3 countries alone, found themselves in a stronger trade agreement with the U.S.? That would have a seismic effect on the global economy.

7) My final point is going to be very forward looking, but here it is…..the robots are coming! I mentioned earlier that technology advancements were accelerated during the Covid period and one of those advancements is A.I. coupled with humanoid robotics. The advancements have come so fast, that they are hard to believe. The top 4 companies making strides towards scaling & mass production of humanoids are Boston Dynamics, Tesla, Figure AI and Agility Robotics, all of which are American companies. These 4 companies have the ability to offset the 3 to 1 advantage in labor that countries like India and China have over the U.S. China does have a company called UB Tech working with robotics. UB Tech robots can be seen here. Of the 5 companies mentioned, Figure AI and Tesla are currently the only 2 companies that have demonstrated the ability to design humanoids and scale up into meaningful production.

You may be asking, what do robots have to do with the U.S. & China tariff wars? Both president Trump and president Xi know that humanoid robotics could dramatically change the economic landscape for the country that integrates all 3 necessary elements: 1) scaling of production 2) hardware design for adaptability in an existing human world, and 3) software that drives the general intelligence necessary to be productive. First to market companies will create explosive labor output, massive efficiency increases, and economic dominance. An example of one key reason to take notice of the rapid development of humanoid robots, would be the global need for rare earth minerals. Rare earth minerals are necessary for many of the technology advancements in the world today. Today, China refines and sells the lion’s share of that resource. In fact, China produces 54 times more than the next closest country, which is Brazil. Mining rare earth minerals comes at a heavy cost for those countries engaging in the refinement process. Mining is costly, difficult and toxic, all at once. Having access to humanoids would address many of the obstacles that exist today with that process. Robots don’t get disease, need coffee breaks and wages, or have fear of tackling dangerous tasks. Because of this emerging technology, a new, global economic vision is taking shape today.

My personal belief is that Tesla is the best positioned to capture the vast majority of the robotics opportunity with both presidents, many major world banks and rating agencies beginning to acknowledge and realize the importance.

Regardless of what you think about Trump, Xi, or any of the other world leader’s political positions, there is something that cannot be denied. Pandora’s Box has been opened, with regard to global trade partnerships and the lid on the box cannot be closed back up. There will be a commerce and trade realignment made, that will advance the best interests of many countries around the globe. That realignment presents an open door for investment. My intent with this article isn’t to pick a side, but rather to point out the opportunity that exists in today’s chaos. I choose to invest in the American economy, as I believe it presents the best risk/reward scenario.

If you are still reading this article, my wish for you is that you seize the opportunity we have today to invest in your future and improve the quality of life for yourself and your loved ones.

7 considerations for investing during the tariff wars.

5 reasons to invest during the current tariff uncertainty!